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Democrats Have a Good Chance of Winning in November, But Can They?

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The Democrats are doing well in the current polling numbers. They're expected to win back the chamber, but we shouldn't call it so soon.

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This is only my opinion and not the representation of Saintel Daily, LLC.

There is officially less than a month until the mid-term elections, and unfortunately for the Republicans, it’s not looking good.  The Democrats are steadily gaining ground, and they’re looking at erasing the 23 seat margin and ending eight years of GOP control.  There are a total of 68 seats, which are currently held by the Republicans, but up for grabs.  On the other side, there are only 6 seats that are held by the Democrats, which could go either way. While it’s too soon to call the election, it would also be naive, considering what happened during the 2016 Presidential Election.  Am I right? That said, it’s looking better and better for the Democrats as the days go on.

This has a lot to do with what’s happened recently in the Supreme Court.  But the Democrats were gaining ground before that – dating back as far as Labor Day.  The good news for the Democrats is that they have 209 seats – firm, or leaning their way.  Which means they are only 9 short of the 218 needed to take back control of the chamber.  As I said earlier, it’s far too early to call the election, but those are pretty good numbers if you’re a Democrat.  These numbers are coming from Politico, and reflect extensive reporting on the state of the 23 seat GOP majority, including evaluations of both parties’ strategies, historical trends, and polling data.

All of that said, this doesn’t mean that it’s in the bag for the Democrats.  They can’t afford any large-scale scandals.  And now is usually the time when these things come up.  In order for the Republicans to take the House, it would require a near-sweep of the toss-up races, or a significant change in the current political environment in the last month of the campaign.  Which is possible, but given what’s happened in relation to Brett Kavanaugh, that might not be in the Republican’s favor.

Despite some individual success stories, the overall House landscape remains grim for the Republicans.  Democratic candidates are better positioned over the final weeks of the campaign, thanks to record-breaking fundraising earlier this year. Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said last week that 60 House Democratic candidates will report raising more than $1 million from July through September — a staggering number — with 30 raising more than $2 million.

There’s a part of me that would like to call this one as I think that it’s a good thing.  But, as you all know, the 2016 Presidential Election was literally in the bag for Hillary Clinton, and it turned out otherwise.  I’m not suggesting anything nefarious in relation to these elections, but literally, anything can happen leading up to an election.  This is the time when elections happen.  It’s always been interesting to me that, when running for president, for example, candidates start so far in advance.  Most of that is around people choosing the candidate, but it’s the last 30 days of an election that matter the most, in my opinion.

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